- Do All Good Things Go Together? Development Assistance and Violence in Insurgency. Forthcoming. The Journal of Politics. PDF. Replication materials on Dataverse.
- Doctrine and Violence: the Impact of Combatant Training on Civilian Killings (with Ben Oppenheim). Forthcoming. Terrorism and Political Violence. PDF.
- True Believers, Deserters, and Traitors: Who Leaves Insurgent Groups and Why (with Ben Oppenheim, Abbey Steele and Juan F. Vargas). 2015. Journal of Conflict Resolution 59(5): 794-823. PDF. Part of special issue on militias in civil war, edited by Corinna Jentzsch, Livia Schubiger, and Stathis N. Kalyvas.
- Vote Choice and Legacies of Violence: Evidence from the 2014 Colombian Presidential Elections (with Juan F. Vargas and Thomas Flores). 2015. Research & Politics 2(2). PDF.
- Bargaining Between Rebel Groups and the Outside Option of Violence (with Håvard Mokleiv Nygård). 2015. Terrorism and Political Violence 27(3): 557-580. PDF.
- How to Make Democracy Self-Enforcing After Civil War: Enabling Credible Yet Adaptable Elite Pacts (with T. Clark Durant). 2014. Conflict Management and Peace Science 31(5): 521-540. PDF.
- An Institutional Remedy for Ethnic Patronage Politics (with T. Clark Durant). 2014. Journal of Theoretical Politics 26(1): 60-79. PDF.
- Altruism, Righteousness, and Myopia (with T. Clark Durant). 2012. Critical Review 23(3): 257-302. PDF.
- Trust in the Executive: Requiring Consensus and Turn-Taking in the Experimental Lab (with T. Clark Durant, Daniel Houser and Shuwen Li). PDF. Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Peace Research.
- Disappearing Dissent? Repression and State Consolidation in Mexico (with Javier Osorio and Livia Schubiger). PDF. Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Peace Research. Part of special issue on archival research, edited by Laia Balcells and Chris Sullivan.
- Urban Concentration and Civil War (with Dani Nedal and Megan Stewart). PDF.
- Historical Legacies of Conflict: From the Cristero Rebellion to Self-Defense Forces in Mexico(with Javier Osorio and Livia Schubiger). Part of special issue on micro-comparative studies of 20th century conflicts, edited by Stathis N. Kalyvas and Daniel Fedorowycz.
- Vigilante Mobilization and Local Order: Evidence from Mexico (with Javier Osorio and Livia Schubiger). PDF.
- The Tangible Effects of Ideology on Insurgent Behavior: Evidence from Colombia (with Juan Esteban Ugarriza).
- Armed Group Competition and Civilian Abuse in Multiparty Civil Wars: Evidence from Colombia.
- The Nuclear Balance and International Conflict (with Matthew Kroenig).
- Promoting Quantitative Analysis Capabilities and Applied Research on Citizen Security in Central America (with Javier Osorio and Reynaldo Rojo Mendoza).
- Explaining Civilian Support for Political and Criminal Armed Groups (with Erica De Bruin and Livia Schubiger).
- Humanizing the Enemy: Experimental Evidence from Ex-Combatants in Colombia (with Sebastián Bitar, Devin Finn, and Angelika Rettberg).
- How to Build the State: A Field Experiment Involving Police Inspectors in Rural Colombia (with Rob Blair, Manuel Moscoso, and Andrés Vargas).
- State Formation and Economic Growth: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the Colombian Insurgency (with Rafael Ch and Juan F. Vargas).
- Civilian Agency in Criminal and Political Conflicts: A Research Agenda (with Cassy Dorff and Jessica Maves Braithwaite).
- Legacies of Lynching: Racial Killings in the American South and Contemporary Violence.
Policy Reports and Analyses
- Rejecting Peace? Legacies of Violence in Colombia (with Håvard Mokleiv Nygård). Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) Conflict Trends.
- ¿Qué Pasó, Colombia? Foco Económico. October 4, 2016.
- Colombia's Peace Plebiscite: the Case for Yes and the Case for No. The Conversation Global. September 30, 2016.
- ¿Qué Vendrá Después de la Paz? Futurología desde la Ciencia Política. Tribuna: Revista de Asuntos Políticos. Escuela de Gobierno Alberto Lleras Camargo, Universidad de los Andes. August 2016.
- Insurgent Defection in Civil War: Lessons from Colombia for Combating ISIS," (with Benjamin A. Oppenheim, Abbey Steele and Juan F. Vargas). Political Violence at a Glance. September 28, 2015.
- To Be By Your Side: Unarmed Protection and Accompaniment in Colombia (with John Lindsay-Poland).
- How Did Guerrilla Violence Shape the 2014 Presidential Election in Colombia? Political Violence at a Glance. March 25, 2015.
- A Progress Report on Peace Talks in Colombia. Early Warning Project. November 4, 2014.
- Don't Hold Up Colombia as a COIN Model to Emulate. Cicero Magazine. August 13, 2014.
- How Legacies of Violence Affected the Colombian Elections. The Monkey Cage. June 6, 2014.
- The Colombian Elections and Prospects for Peace. Early Warning Project. May 30, 2014.