- Do All Good Things Go Together? Development Assistance and Violence in Insurgency. Forthcoming. The Journal of Politics. PDF. Replication materials on Dataverse.
- Doctrine and Violence: the Impact of Combatant Training on Civilian Killings (with Ben Oppenheim). Forthcoming. Terrorism and Political Violence. PDF.
- True Believers, Deserters, and Traitors: Who Leaves Insurgent Groups and Why (with Ben Oppenheim, Abbey Steele and Juan F. Vargas). 2015. Journal of Conflict Resolution 59(5): 794-823. PDF. Part of special issue on militias in civil war, edited by Corinna Jentzsch, Livia Schubiger, and Stathis N. Kalyvas.
- Vote Choice and Legacies of Violence: Evidence from the 2014 Colombian Presidential Elections (with Juan F. Vargas and Thomas Flores). 2015. Research & Politics 2(2). PDF.
- Bargaining Between Rebel Groups and the Outside Option of Violence (with Håvard Mokleiv Nygård). 2015. Terrorism and Political Violence 27(3): 557-580. PDF.
- How to Make Democracy Self-Enforcing After Civil War: Enabling Credible Yet Adaptable Elite Pacts (with T. Clark Durant). 2014. Conflict Management and Peace Science 31(5): 521-540. PDF.
- An Institutional Remedy for Ethnic Patronage Politics (with T. Clark Durant). 2014. Journal of Theoretical Politics 26(1): 60-79. PDF.
- Altruism, Righteousness, and Myopia (with T. Clark Durant). 2012. Critical Review 23(3): 257-302. PDF.
- Trust in the Executive: Requiring Consensus and Turn-Taking in the Experimental Lab (with T. Clark Durant, Daniel Houser and Shuwen Li). PDF. Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Peace Research.
- Urban Concentration and Civil War (with Dani Nedal and Megan Stewart). PDF.
- Disappearing Dissent? Repression and State Consolidation in Mexico (with Javier Osorio and Livia Schubiger). PDF.
- Vigilante Mobilization and Local Order: Evidence from Mexico (with Javier Osorio and Livia Schubiger). PDF.
- The Tangible Effects of Ideology on Insurgent Behavior: Evidence from Colombia (with Juan Esteban Ugarriza).
- Armed Group Competition and Civilian Abuse in Multiparty Civil Wars: Evidence from Colombia.
- The Nuclear Balance and International Conflict (with Matthew Kroenig).
- Explaining Civilian Support for Political and Criminal Armed Groups (with Erica De Bruin and Livia Schubiger).
- Promoting Quantitative Analysis Capabilities and Applied Research on Citizen Security in Central America (with Javier Osorio and Reynaldo Rojo Mendoza).
- Humanizing the Enemy: Experimental Evidence from Ex-Combatants in Colombia (with Sebastián Bitar and Angelika Rettberg).
- How to Build the State: A Field Experiment Involving Police Inspectors in Rural Colombia (with Rob Blair, Manuel Moscoso, and Andrés Vargas).
- State Formation and Economic Growth: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the Colombian Insurgency (with Rafael Ch and Juan F. Vargas).
- Civilian Agency in Criminal and Political Conflicts: A Research Agenda (with Cassy Dorff and Jessica Maves Braithwaite).
- Legacies of Lynching: Racial Killings in the American South and Contemporary Violence.
Policy Reports and Analyses
- Rejecting Peace? Legacies of Violence in Colombia (with Håvard Mokleiv Nygård). Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) Conflict Trends.
- ¿Qué Pasó, Colombia? Foco Económico. October 4, 2016.
- Colombia's Peace Plebiscite: the Case for Yes and the Case for No. The Conversation Global. September 30, 2016.
- ¿Qué Vendrá Después de la Paz? Futurología desde la Ciencia Política. Tribuna: Revista de Asuntos Políticos. Escuela de Gobierno Alberto Lleras Camargo, Universidad de los Andes. August 2016.
- Insurgent Defection in Civil War: Lessons from Colombia for Combating ISIS," (with Benjamin A. Oppenheim, Abbey Steele and Juan F. Vargas). Political Violence at a Glance. September 28, 2015.
- To Be By Your Side: Unarmed Protection and Accompaniment in Colombia (with John Lindsay-Poland).
- How Did Guerrilla Violence Shape the 2014 Presidential Election in Colombia? Political Violence at a Glance. March 25, 2015.
- A Progress Report on Peace Talks in Colombia. Early Warning Project. November 4, 2014.
- Don't Hold Up Colombia as a COIN Model to Emulate. Cicero Magazine. August 13, 2014.
- How Legacies of Violence Affected the Colombian Elections. The Monkey Cage. June 6, 2014.
- The Colombian Elections and Prospects for Peace. Early Warning Project. May 30, 2014.