Michael Weintraub
Michael Weintraub
 
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Academic research

Which public policies reduce violence in the world's most dangerous cities? How can policing institutions be reformed to reduce police abuse and increase citizen trust? How can the state re-establish control after civil war? How do ex-combatants and ordinary citizens perceive peacebuilding efforts?

To answer these questions—in Colombia, Mexico, Brazil, and Central America—I work with international organizations, national and local governments, and use a combination of experimental and quasi-experimental quantitative methods.

Peer-Reviewed Publications

22. Loss Framing and Risk-Taking in Territorial Disputes (with Andi Zhou and Hein Goemans). Pre-Analysis Plan. PDF. Journal of Politics. Conditionally accepted.

21. Mano Dura: An Experimental Evaluation of Military Policing in Cali, Colombia (with Rob Blair and Lucía Mendoza Mora). Pre-Analysis Plan. American Journal of Political Science. Forthcoming. PDF.

20. Out-Competing Rivals: Armed Group Governance and Civilian Attitudes in Colombia (with Erica De Bruin, Gabriella Levy, and Livia Schubiger). American Political Science Review. Forthcoming. PDF.

19. Did Covid-19 Change Armed Group Governance? Evidence from a Survey of Local Security Authorities in Colombia (with Erica De Bruin). 2023. Bulletin of Latin American Research. PDF.

18. Introducing the Mapping Attitudes, Perceptions and Support (MAPS) Dataset on the Colombian Peace Process (with Helga Binningsbø, Marianne Dahl, Håvard Nygård, Sebastián Pantoja, and Abbey Steele). 2023. Journal of Peace Research. PDF.

17. Little Evidence that Military Policing Reduces Crime or Improves Human Security (with Rob Blair). 2023. Nature Human Behaviour 7: 861-873. PDF.

Press coverage in El Tiempo.

Press coverage in 070.

16. Introduction to the Special Symposium: Collective Vigilantism in Global Comparative Perspective (with Dara Kay Cohen and Danielle Jung). 2023. Comparative Politics 55(2). PDF.

15. Preventing Rebel Resurgence after Civil War: A Field Experiment in Security and Justice Provision in Rural Colombia (with Rob Blair, Manuel Moscoso, and Andrés Vargas). 2022. American Political Science Review. PDF.

Best paper presented at the American Political Science Association 2020 Meeting, Experimental Research Section.

14. Reducing Alcohol-Related Violence with Bartenders: A Behavioral Field Experiment (with Andrés Ham, Darío Maldonado, Andrés Felipe Camacho and Daniela Gualtero). American Economic Association RCT Registry page. 2022. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management (JPAM) 41(3): 731-761. PDF.

13. The 2016 Election and America’s Standing Abroad: Quasi-Experimental Evidence of a ‘Trump Effect’ (with Regina Bateson). 2022. Journal of Politics 84(4). PDF.

12. Legacies of Resistance: Mobilization Against Organized Crime in Mexico (with Javier Osorio and Livia Schubiger). 2021. Comparative Political Studies. PDF.

11. Urban Concentration and Civil War (with Dani Nedal and Megan Stewart). 2020. Journal of Conflict Resolution 64(6):1146-1171. PDF.

10. Trust in the Executive: Requiring Consensus and Turn-Taking in the Experimental Lab (with T. Clark Durant, Daniel Houser and Shuwen Li). 2018. Journal of Peace Research 55(5): 609-624. PDF and online appendix.

9. Disappearing Dissent? Repression and State Consolidation in Mexico (with Javier Osorio and Livia Schubiger). 2018. Journal of Peace Research 55(2): 252-266. Part of special issue on archival research, edited by Laia Balcells and Chris Sullivan. PDF and online appendix.

8. Do All Good Things Go Together? Development Assistance and Violence in Insurgency. 2016. Journal of Politics 78(4). PDF. Replication materials on Dataverse.

7. Doctrine and Violence: the Impact of Combatant Training on Civilian Killings (with Ben Oppenheim). 2017. Terrorism and Political Violence 29(6): 1126-1148. PDF.

6. True Believers, Deserters, and Traitors: Who Leaves Insurgent Groups and Why (with Ben Oppenheim, Abbey Steele and Juan F. Vargas). 2015. Journal of Conflict Resolution 59(5):  794-823. Part of special issue on militias in civil war, edited by Corinna Jentzsch, Livia Schubiger, and Stathis N. Kalyvas. PDF. 

5. Vote Choice and Legacies of Violence: Evidence from the 2014 Colombian Presidential Elections (with Juan F. Vargas and Thomas Flores). 2015. Research & Politics 2(2). PDF.

4. Bargaining Between Rebel Groups and the Outside Option of Violence (with Håvard Mokleiv Nygård). 2015. Terrorism and Political Violence 27(3): 557-580. PDF.

3. How to Make Democracy Self-Enforcing After Civil War: Enabling Credible Yet Adaptable Elite Pacts (with T. Clark Durant). 2014. Conflict Management and Peace Science 31(5): 521-540. PDF.

2. An Institutional Remedy for Ethnic Patronage Politics (with T. Clark Durant). 2014. Journal of Theoretical Politics 26(1): 60-79. PDF.

1. Altruism, Righteousness, and Myopia (with T. Clark Durant). 2012. Critical Review 23(3): 257-302. PDF.

Coedited Special Issue

Special Symposium on Collective Vigilantism in Global Comparative Perspective (coedited with Dara Kay Cohen and Danielle Jung). 2023. Comparative Politics 55(2).

Book chapters

3. Rebel Governance and Political Participation (with Abbey Steele). 2025. In Institutional Legacies of Violent Conflict: Development and State-Building in the Shadow of Wartime Institutional Change, edited by Patricia Justino. Oxford University Press.

2. Participación de exintegrantes de las Farc-EP en programas de reincorporación: Evidencia de 3 años de atenciones (with Leopoldo Fergusson, Natalia Garbiras-Díaz, Juana García Duque). 2023. In ¿Cómo va la paz en Colombia?, edited by Angelika Rettberg and Laura Betancur. PDF.

1. Public Policy Analysis and Decision Making in the Military Forces: the Havana Experience (with Paula Lorena Mora-Hernández, Juan David Gelvez-Ferreira and Sebastián Bitar). 2020. In Policy Analysis in Colombia, edited by Pablo Sanabria and Nadia Rubaii. The Policy Press.

Revise and Resubmit

Transitional Justice Institutions and Political Engagement (with Abbey Steele and Sebastián Pantoja). Comparative Politics. Revised and resubmitted.

Reject and Resubmit

News Media Reporting Patterns and our Understanding of Global Unrest (with Andrew Shaver, Joe Felter, Kately Arriaga, Anne Blackburn, Lesley Chavez, Kyle Cruz-Anderson, Bryn Farrington, Caterina Hyneman, Alexandra Leal Silva, Talia Lorch, Jack McLean, Mateo Prada and Marie Tobia). Journal of Political Economy. Working paper.

Under Review

Building Trust in State Actors: A Multi-Site Experiment with the Colombian National Police (with Verónica Abril, Ervyn Norza, Santiago Pérez-Vincent, and Santiago Tobón). Pre-Analysis Plan. PDF.

Why Do Citizens Support Ineffective Military Policing Policies? Evidence from Field and Survey Experiments in Colombia (with Rob Blair and Jessica Zarkin). PDF.

Working Papers

Maps to Die For? (with Hein Goemans, Andi Zhou, and Joel Selway). Pre-Analysis Plan.

Rank-and-File: How the United Nations Affects Former Foot Soldiers’ Attitudes (with Natalia Garbiras-Díaz, Leopoldo Fergusson, Juana García and Laia Balcells). Pre-Analysis Plan. PDF.

A New Path to Police Reform? Effects of a New Police Squad in Ceará, Brazil (with Joana Monteiro and André Mancha).

Reducing Crime Without the Police? (with Ignacio Sarmiento and Olga Lucía Sarmiento).

Marijuana Regulations and Crime: A Meta-Analysis (with María Castillo, Cecilia Suescún and Lucas Marín).

Do Protests Cause Crime? Evidence from Bogotá, Colombia (with Jorge Ochoa and Lucía Mendoza Mora).

Motorcycle Restrictions and Crime in Colombia (with Leonardo Bonilla and Eduard Martínez). PDF.

Press coverage in El Tiempo.
Press coverage on Caracol TV.

Trust and Reincorporation of Ex-Combatants: Evidence from Colombia (with Sebastián Bitar and Angelika Rettberg).

Accents as Capital: Experimental Evidence from Colombia (with Leopoldo Fergusson and Natalia Garbiras-Díaz).

Dormant Working Papers

Reducing Pretrial Detentions: Evidence from a Randomized Policy Intervention in El Salvador (with Javier Osorio and Andrés Ham). PDF.